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February 13, 2026
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February 13, 2026
Headlines vs. Reality: Why Rates Are Near 6%
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Mortgage rates are near 6%, and if you only look at the headlines, you might think the economy is stronger than ever. The latest jobs report showed growth and a lower unemployment rate. On the surface, that sounds like upward pressure on rates.
But when you dig deeper, the story changes.
Recent revisions to prior job reports show that job growth over the past year was significantly overstated. The labor market is softer than the initial headlines suggest. At the same time, inflation continues to cool, with both headline and core readings moving lower.
Mortgage rates follow the bond market, and bonds focus on inflation and economic strength. Slower job growth and easing inflation are supportive of lower rates, which is one reason we have drifted closer to 6%.
There is another factor helping rates right now. The spread between the 10 year Treasury and mortgage rates widened dramatically in recent years, keeping mortgage rates elevated. That spread is now compressing back toward more normal levels. Even if Treasury yields stay relatively steady, mortgage rates can improve as that spread narrows.
Looking ahead, inventory has increased and affordability has improved compared to a year ago. Many buyers have negotiated seller paid closing costs and rate buydowns to improve their payment.
But here is the key: seller concessions are more common in slower markets. If rates continue to improve and activity increases, sellers may be less inclined to offer those credits.
That creates a potential window. Buyers who understand the timing can take advantage of improving rates and negotiated concessions while they are still available.
The headlines do not always tell the full story. When you look underneath them, the trend is pointing toward opportunity.
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